April’s new home sales data

 

• Today’s home sales report showed that new homes sales edged up 0.3% in April compared to a revised 351,000 in March but came in slightly below expectations.
  • Economist forecasts were expected to come at 360,000 from 356,000.
• April new home sales by region:
  • South 1.9%
  • West 3.8%
  • Northeast & Mideast unchanged
• The number of homes for sale continued to decline in April, falling to 297,000 as supply continues to be absorbed and builders stop the building. 
• Total for sale was 370,000 in November 2008.

• But was was most alarming is the MBA’s quarterly delinquency survey.  A rise in the number of foreclosures, up 1.37% in Q1 2009 compared to 1.08% in Q4 2008.
• Foreclosure inventory was also up.  3.85% in Q1 2009 compared with 3.3% in Q4 2008.
• The delinquency rate which includes loans that are at least one payment past due but not in foreclosure was up 9.12% in Q1 2009 vs. 7.88% in Q4 2008.

"MBA's forecast, a view now shared by the Federal Reserve and others, is that the unemployment rate will not hit its peak until mid-2010. Since changes in mortgage performance lag changes in the level of employment, it is unlikely we will see much of an improvement until after that, If the peak of unemployment doesn't hit until the middle of next year, it won't be until the end of 2010 or early 2011 that the foreclosure picture could improve. But that timing also hinges on the local pictures in states including California and Florida, which have had an "oversized role" in the increase in foreclosures; the sooner things improve in some of the worst states, the sooner the national numbers could also start to look better. If you work through the foreclosure numbers there... you may still see the national numbers come down," - Jay Brinkmann (MBA's chief economist)

Source: RTT News, FXDD & MarketWatch