- Economic activity in the Q1 2009 contracted by less than previously expected. GDP fell –5.5% in Q1 vs. a –5.7% expected decline
- None the less, this was a large improvement compared to the Q4 2008 GDP of –6.3%
“slightly less bad first quarter sets the stage for an even smaller drop in the second quarter and a trough in the third quarter.” – Nariman behravesh (Chief economist at IGH global insight)
- Behravesh expected economic activity to contract by –2.5% to –3.0% in Q2 followed by a more less flat performance in Q3 and around a +1% growth in Q4 2009
- This smaller downward revision reflected an upward revision to inventory investment and a downward revision to imports.
- Report also showed a downward revision to the pace of consumer spending growth, which was revised to show an increase of 1.4% compared to the previously reported 1.5% increase.
- Positive contributions were partly offset by larger decreases in private inventory investment and in spending on non-residential structures.
- Fed also said conditions in financial markets have generally improved and housing spending has shown further signs of stability.
- EOCD predicted this week the US downturn will bottom out this year and be followed by a soft recovery in 2010.
- Weak job markets and falling home prices as mentioned above are expected to dampen consumer spending for some time.
- Exports dropped –30.6% in Q1 instead of –28.7% a months ago.
- Imports dropped at 36.4%, the steepest since 1947.
- Drop in exports cut 4.16% points from GDP.
- Corporate porfits grew at a +1.4% rate during Q1 slightly better than the expected 1.1% estimated a month ago after falling 10.7% in the final 3 months of last year.
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