US Q1 GDP revised down to –5.5% decline

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  • Economic activity in the Q1 2009 contracted by less than previously expected. GDP fell –5.5% in Q1 vs. a –5.7% expected decline
  • None the less, this was a large improvement compared to the Q4 2008 GDP of –6.3%

“slightly less bad first quarter sets the stage for an even smaller drop in the second quarter and a trough in the third quarter.” – Nariman behravesh (Chief economist at IGH global insight)

  • Behravesh expected economic activity to contract by –2.5% to –3.0% in Q2 followed by a more less flat performance in Q3 and around a +1% growth in Q4 2009
  • This smaller downward revision reflected an upward revision to inventory investment and a downward revision to imports.
  • Report also showed a downward revision to the pace of consumer spending growth, which was revised to show an increase of 1.4% compared to the previously reported 1.5% increase.
  • Positive contributions were partly offset by larger decreases in private inventory investment and in spending on non-residential structures.
  • Fed also said conditions in financial markets have generally improved and housing spending has shown further signs of stability.
  • EOCD predicted this week the US downturn will bottom out this year and be followed by a soft recovery in 2010.
  • Weak job markets and falling home prices as mentioned above are expected to dampen consumer spending for some time.
  • Exports dropped –30.6% in Q1 instead of –28.7% a months ago.
  • Imports dropped at 36.4%, the steepest since 1947.
    • Drop in exports cut 4.16% points from GDP.
  • Corporate porfits grew at a +1.4% rate during Q1 slightly better than the expected 1.1% estimated a month ago after falling 10.7% in the final 3 months of last year.

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RTT News, Reuters & Barron's

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