Bought AGEN @ 2.13 after noticing the stock hold nicely since the drop from its peak @ $1.99. Stop loss placed @ 1.99 with a short term target price of 2.34.
Also went long Nokia (NOK) yesterday
Also went long NOK yesterday @ $13.58 after noticing some promising developments in the past few day’s price movement which broke through key moving averages such as the 100, 150 & 200. Stop loss placed @ $13.39 with a short term target price of $14.84 in the short term and $16.41 in the longer term period which I think may be more on the highly unlikely camp.
Went long First Solar (FSLR) again yesterday
Forgot to update my positions yesterday because I had other errands to do the minute I was done with the market. Went long FSLR yesterday @ $125.61 for another final try after noticing the stock react nicely on the $123.56 trendline after a false breakout on August 21st, 2009 which forced me to sell. Stop loss still placed @ $123.56 with a short term price target of $140.48 but I might also sell if it only retests the blue trendline.
S&P HPI showed good improvements QoQ
- S&P case-Shiller index showed home prices fell at an annual rate of 15.4% in June compared to a revised 17% in May.
- Economist had expected prices to fall 16.4% compared to the same month a year ago.
- U.S. national home price index fell at an annual rate of 14.9% in Q2 compared to a record 19.1% decline in Q1.
- On a sequential basis, National home price index was up 2.9% in Q2 compared to the previous quarter.
"This is the first time we have seen a positive quarter-over-quarter print in three years.” – David M. Blitzer (Chairman of the Index Committeeat S&P)
- Report also showed that both the 10-city and 20-city composite indexes posted monthly increases, with both increasing by 1.4% in June compared to May.
"As seen in both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted data, as well as the charts, there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom. However, some of the hardest hit cities, especially in the Sun Belt, show continued weakness." – Blitzer said
- 18 of the 20 metro areas saw improvement in their annual returns in June, although 15 out of the 20 metro areas continued to report double-digit annual declines.
"The question looking out the next few quarters is what the influence will be from a catch up in home prices to the downside in the prime area and the end to foreclosure moratoriums at many banks." – Peter Boockvar (Equity Strategies for Miller Tabak)
Consumer confidence 54.1 vs. 48 consensus
- Consumer confidence has rebounded in the month of August after seeing deterioration in July.
- The increase was partly due to an improvement in consumer's’ assessment of the job market.
- Conference board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 54.1 in August from an upwardly revised 46.6 in July.
- Economists had been expecting the index to increase to 47.9 from 46.6 originally reported from the previous month.
“Consumer confidence, which had posted back-to-back monthly declines, appears to be back on the mend.” – Lynn Franco (Director of the Conference board Consumer Research)
- The bigger than expected increase by the consumer confidence index was partly due to a slight improvement in consumers’ assessment of current conditions, with the present conditions edging up to 24.9 from 23.3 in July.
- Those claiming business conditions are “bad” fell to 45.6% from 46.5%.
- Those claiming conditions are “good” also edged down to 8.6% from 8.9%.
- Consumers also had a more favorable appraisal of the job market, as those saying jobs are “plentiful” rose to 3.2% from 3.7%
- Those saying jobs are “hard to get” fell to 45.1% from 48.5%
- Report also showed a better improvement in consumers’ assessment of the short term outlook, with expectations index rising to 73.5% in August from 63.4% in July.
"Consumers were more upbeat in their short-term outlook for both the economy and the job market in August, but only slightly more upbeat in their income expectations” – Lynn Franco
- Consumers expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next 6 months rose to 22.4% from 18.4%
- Those expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 15.8% from 19%
- Conference board said that the outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat, as those expecting more jobs in the months ahead rose to 18.4% from 15.5% and those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 23.3% from 26.1%.
- Report also showed that consumers expecting an increase in their incomes increased slightly to 10.6% from 10.1%
Added AGfeed (FEED) to my positon
Bought FEED to my position @ 4.78 today after noticing the stock reaching a key trendline and holding above it in the past 4 days @ 4.59. Stop loss placed below $4.18 with a short term target price of $6.50.
Added more First Solar (FSLR)
Added more FSLR @ 130.14 to my position after seeing it hold above the trendline today above $130.00. I hope this will be the final stages of the sell-off as stochastic and MACD are signaling that its oversold.
Retail sales very much worst than expected
- Retail sales for July by –0.1% in July followed by a 0.6% gain in the previous month. Economist had expected the figures to rise 0.8%.
- Auto sales, which were expected to receive a boost from the government’s cash for clunkers program, gained by +2.4%. Followed by a 1.9% increase in June.
"The consumer is clearly far from out of the woods," noted Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
- July saw a decline in furniture, electronics, building materials, food and beverages, sporting goods and department stories.
- This was partially offset by more spending on restaurants and bars, online retailing and clothing.
- Electronics segment suffered a -1.4% slide, with sales down 14% compared to last year.
- Furniture sales dropped by 0.9% compared to the previous month.
- Sporting goods fell –1.9%.
- Building materials fell by –2.1% and department store sales dropped by –1.6%
“consumers continue to deleverage from the mountains of debt" they built up over the past two-decades.” – Lindsey Piegza (Economic analyst, FTN Financial)
Source: RTT News
Bought First Solar (FSLR) @ 146.77
Bought FSLR @ 146.77 after noticing the stock able to hold support @ #139.48 today. Hopefully this will rally big to 176 at least. But this stock will face many technical resistance along the way, so will keep an eye on how the stock develops along the way. Stop loss placed @ 140.
Bought Kellogg's (K) @ 46.21
Bought Kellogg’s @ $46.21 after noticing the stock to be reaching oversold conditions and looks like its ready for its rebound. Target price placed at $49.42. But looks like it will have short term resistance @ 47.42. Stop loss placed @ 45.85. But maybe I will hold this for the long term.
Bought Genzyme (GENZ) @ 48.35
Went back into Genzyme again @ 48.35 after noticing it hold nicely above the $47.65 support. Although the support cannot be seen in the daily, it can be seen in the weekly charts dating back to 2004.
Hopefully this level will hold now even though Goldman Sachs initiated a downgrade today. No real target price just yet, will wait for how the stock reacts at the $50.18 level. Stop loss placed @ $47.50
Jobless claims better than expected
- First time claims for unemployment benefit showed a wider increase for July.
- Report showed that initial jobless claims fell to 550,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 588,000.
- Economists had been expecting jobless claims to edge down to 580,000 from 584,000 originally reported for the previous week.
- The data showed a return to normalcy following a volatile period in July that included two weeks of steep declines followed by two weeks of rebounds.
- The decline occurred after the usual layoffs in the automobile and other manufacturing sectors, which are expected this time of year.
"While the drop in initial claims is welcome, as the pace of firing seems to be slowing, the other data points still point to a difficult hiring environment.” – Peter Boockvar ( Equity Strategist, Miller Tabak)
- Payroll processor said that employment is likely to decline for at least several more months despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing.
ADP Employment report data better than July but details still gloomy
- ADP report showed that non-farm private employment fell by 371,000 jobs in July following a revised decrease of 463,000 jobs in June.
- Economist had been expecting a decrease of about 350,000 jobs compared to the loss of 473,000 jobs originally reported the previous month.
- Drop in jobs in July was the smallest since of a decrease of 352,000 jobs in October 2008.
- Adding that the decrease continues the notable improvement seen between the first and second quarters of 2009.
- Payroll processor said that employment is likely to decline for at least several months despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing, as employment usually trails overall economic activity.
- Drop in private sector employment in July reflected decreases in jobs in both the service-providing and goods-producing sector.
- Service providing sector lost 202,000 jobs, employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 169,000 jobs due in part to the loss of 99,000 manufacturing jobs.
- Report also showed notable decreases in employment at small and medium-size businesses, which lost 138,000 jobs and 159,000 jobs.
- Employment by large businesses fell by a less bad 74,000
"One of the things we know is that access to credit has been difficult to small businesses, as credit becomes available, we may see a more rapid rate of recovery." - Chris Varvares (President, Macroeconomic Advisers)
Long Unisys Corp (UIS) @ 2.03
Long Unisys Corp @ the 2.03 level after noticing a very small breakout @ the 2.01 level. This one may be dangerous but I believe that the downside risk based on stop loss is fairly minimal with about –1.5% vs. a potential 46% upside to a target price of $2.97.
Long McDonalds (MCD) @ 55.01
- Long McDonalds Corp @ $55.01 after noticing today’s strength @ the $54.98 level. Based on the RSI & MACD it looks like its ready for its move up. None the less short term stop loss placed @ the $54.90 level. Target price, none, I want to keep this for the long run especially with the dollar trending downwards in the long run, their profits will inflate even more due to their high international exposure.
Personal income & Spending pretty much inline..
- Personal income fell by 1.3% in June after increasing by a revised 1.3% in May.
- Economist had been expecting income to decrease by about 1% compared to the 1.4% increase originally reported.
- Lower taxes and increased government benefit payments associated with the economic stimulus bill has contributed to the recent volatility in personal income, boosting in May by much more than in June.
- Excluding impacts of the stimulus bill, personal income edged down 0.1% in June compared to a decrease of less than 0.1% in May.
- Report also showed that personal spending rose 0.4% in June following a revised 0.1% increase in May.
- While the increase in spending exceeded economist estimates of 0.3% growth, the increase in spending in May was revised down from 0.3%.
- Although spending increased for the second consecutive month, it remains down 2.2% YoY.
- Spending has been down every month since December YoY.
- Drop in income combined with the monthly increase in spending caused the personal savings rate slip to 4.6% in June from 6.2% in May.
- Nonetheless, the savings rate remains well above the levels seen in recent years.
"Bottom line, spending remains punk and a tough labor market isn't helping. Plus, a change in the savings habits of Americans will keep a lid on spending that will hopefully be offset by exports and business investment.” – Peter Boockvar (equity strategist, Miller Tabak)
First Solar (FSLR) also on my list of targets
It looks like it still has a little more downside to go. Looking to enter @ the 138.28 is the first level to look at. If that breaks $128 should be a strong resistance point. But the 200DMA is flattening out and may be a strong point of support. Will look at tomorrow to see how the stock reacts to that 200DMA.
Finally I found a stock that’s oversold (MCD)
This stock barely participated in the rally for the past two weeks. Stochastics are indicating oversold levels and MACD is also at negative territory. I will look at how the price reacts at the $54.13 level and well hopefully it holds so I can finally go long. All the other high betas stocks have flown away… It’s time to purchase high quality stocks at good discounts.
ISM manufacturing index 48.9 vs. 46.5 consensus
- ISM manufacturing sector rose to 48.9 in July, from 44.8 in June beating consensus estimates by 5% at 46.5
- The slower pace of contraction has been contributed by the turnaround in new orders jumping to 55.3 in July from 49.2 in June.
- Production also showed a notable improvement, growing at a faster face compared to the previous month. Production index rose to 57.9 in July from 42.5 in June.
- Employment index rose to 45.6 in July from 40.7 in June, but it continues to indicate a drop in employment in the manufacturing sector.
- Inventories index edged up to 33.5 in July from 30.8 in June.
"Overall, it would be difficult to convince many manufacturers that we are on the brink of recovery, but the data suggests that we will see growth in the third quarter if the trends continue.” – Norbert Ore (Chairman of the ISM Manufacturing survey)
![[Hopeful signs for the economy]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/NA-AZ435_Econom_NS_20090803204315.gif)
Went long Exco Resources (XCO)
Went long on Exco resources @ 14.47 after noticing a breakout back into its trendline currently situated @ $13.97. Target price @ 16.05 & stop loss placed around $14.00.