ISM manufacturing index showed a slower pace of contraction

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  • The pace of contraction slowed in the month of June compared to the previous month in the middle of some encouraging signs for the manufacturing sector.
  • ISM said its index of activity in the manufacturing sector rose 44.8 in June from 42.8 in May.
    • A reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
  • The economist came pretty much inline with the expectations of economist, who forecast a reading of 44.6

"Manufacturing continues to contract at a slower rate, but the trends in the indexes are encouraging as seven of 18 industries reported growth in June.” – Norbert J. Ore (Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee)

  • Turnaround in production was the most encouraging sign, with the production index jumping to 52.5 in June from 46 in May.
    • With the increase, the index rose above 50 for the first time Since July 2008 and reached its highest level since January 2008.
  • Employment index rose rose 40.7 in June from 34.3 in the previous month.
    • Employment showed some improvement in the month, although it continued to contract.
  • New orders index slipped back below 50, dipping to 49.2 in June compared to 41.1 in May
  • With regards to inflation, ISM said that the prices index jumped to 50 in June from 43.5 in May, with the increase reflecting the recent increase in commodities prices.
  • Inventories index fell to 30.8 in June from 32.9 in May, indicating a faster pace of contraction in inventories.

"Inventory correction should now be near its end. After a violent draw-down of inventories, firms will have to restock in the not-too-distant future." – Bernd Weidensteiner (Analyst, Commerzbank)

  • On top of that, government efforts to revive auto sales may give manufacturing and the economy a boost in the third quarter.  The “cash for clunkers” bill that passed congress in June gives consumers as much as $4,500 to trade in their old cars for more fuel-efficient vehicles.

ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 47.5 VS 48.0
PRICES-PAID INDEX 50.0 VS 43.5
INVENTORIES INDEX 30.8 VS 32.9
EMPLOYMENT INDEX 40.7 VS 34.3
PRODUCTION INDEX 52.5 VS 46.0
NEW ORDERS INDEX 49.2 VS 51.1

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Source: RTT, FXDD & Bloomberg

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