China retail sales to pass US retail sales by mid 2011

Its amazing to see how once one of the most poorest nations in the world in terms of consumers are now able to surpass the richest in as little as 15 years.  According to business week, Chinese department store, PCD attracted so much traffic customers that Beijing police had to step in to control traffic. 

"The love affair of the Chinese consumer with luxury products is growing," says PCD Chairman Alfred Chan.

For this reason opportunities in terms of consumers goods are still plenty.  On top of that, their growth is still astounding and have yet to implement many of the western countries’ techniques in term of how they sell their goods.  For example, E-Commerce has yet to develop and brokerage firm CLSA estimates the Chinese retail market will expand by about 24% in 2010. 

Retailers such as PCD have yet to benefit from the growing interest in luxury and high end goods. 

"With the emergence of the middle class, people are going for better brands," says Yuval Atsmon, an associate principal for McKinsey in Shanghai.

Now high margin goods such as cosmetics, designer clothes and shoes account for more than 70% of sales at the top department stores.  Plus, in contrast to U.S. custom, large Chinese retailers sign deals directly with brand owners, charging them rent and letting them manage their sales in the store.

Today, the top five department store operators together have just 8% of the market, vs. 70% in the U.S., BCG estimates. That will soon change, Cheng predicts.

"There will be only 10 to 15 groups remaining 10 years down the road." – Alfred Cheng (CEO of Parkson)

Source: Business Week

Consumer credit improves much better than expected

  • Consumer credit fell at an annual rate of $3.51 billion in October. As opposed to the $9.3 billion by Economist.
  • Demand for revolving credit, fell 9.3%, while borrowing in the category that include auto loans rose at an annual rate of 2.6%
  • Americans are still borrowing less as they try to replenish depleted investments.  Many are finding it hard to get credit as banks have tightened lending standards.
  • The 1.7% fall in overall consumer borrowing left that total at an annual rate of $2.48 trillion in October.  The $3.51 billion fall in October followed a decline of 48.77 billion in September.
  • The 9.3% decline in the credit card category followed declines of 10.5% in September and 10.6% in August. 
  • All in all, credit card borrowing has fallen for a record 13 straight month.

[Chart]

Source: NY Times & Barron's

Foreign direct investment in emerging economies overtaking developed economies.

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14742533&fsrc=rss

Companies that has been growing throughout the recession

Company

Market Cap

Product Categories

2007 Sales Growth

2008 Sales Growth

TTM Sales Growth

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR)

$3.2 billion

Specialty coffee and brewing systems

51.6%

46.4%

56.1%

Hansen Natural (Nasdaq:HANS)

$3.4 billion

Nonalcoholic specialty beverages

49.3%

14.3%

9.7%

TreeHouse Foods

$1.1 billion

Packaged foods and sauces

23.3%

29.6%

9.5%

Jarden (NYSE: JAH)

$2.4 billion

Home, recreation, and outdoor

21.2%

15.5%

(2.8%)

Hasbro

$3.9 billion

Toys and games

21.8%

4.8%

(4.0%)

Tupperware Brands (NYSE:TUP)

$2.9 billion

Food storage, beauty, and personal care

13.6%

9.1%

(8.7%)

Data from Yahoo! Finance and Capital IQ as of Oct. 26. TTM = trailing 12 months.

China's car market crossing us sales..



Exxon-Mobile’s breakout (XOM)

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Beautiful triangle breakout on Exxon-Mobile.  Bought this on the pinkish colored red line @ $66.55 on October 2nd, 2009 and am so glad to  have made the purchase especially after seeing it break out finally on the upside.  A wedge formation like this statistically results in a huge move depending on where the triangle breaks and today’s break is on the upside.  Hoping to see a continuation tomorrow with a much higher volume especially when everyone’s back from Columbus day holiday. 

Rally in $AAPL is insane

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Just want to say that the rally in Apple shares is insane.  Barely even crossed the oversold levels on the Stochastics RSI of 20 every time it rushes to new highs since July 9th, 2009.